Message:25547 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 08 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <18230_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260708/1532Z 33435@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest event of the period
was an impulsive M4.0/1b flare observed at 07/1419 UTC from Region 4482
(S09E35, Eki/beta-gamma). This flare was accompanied by Type II
(estimated shock velocity of 593 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps.
Otherwise, only occasional B- and C-class flares were observed,
including a C1.8 flare from Region 4485 (S10W21, Dri/beta) at 07/2249
UTC.
There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
4482 demonstrated continued growth and developed a delta spot within its
trailing spot group. Region 4485 displayed new flux emergence. Regions
4486 (S18W50,Bxo/beta) and 4487 (N09E33, Bxo/beta) were newly numbered
during the period. Region 4481 (N14E01, Axx/alpha) was stable and
remained an unremarkable unipolar group.
A faint CME associated with the M4.0 flare from Region 4482 was first
seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1500 UTC. This CME was not visible in
other coronagraphs, and SUVI imagery showed a significant amount of the
ejective material was reabsorbed. Additionally, a large 15 degree
filament centered near N18E75 was observed erupting beginning around
07/2116 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. This eruption was subsequently observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 07/2212 UTC and GOES CCOR1 imagery at 07/2300
UTC, and is the likely source of Type II radio sweeps recorded beginning
at 07/2255 UTC with estimated shock velocities of 877 km/s and 1,441
km/s. Analysis of these events shows no Earth-directed components.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 10 July, with
a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight
chance for X-class (R3/Strong and greater) events. This flare
probability is almost entirely due to the complexity and potential of
Region 4482.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit dropped
from high to moderate levels around 08/0100 UTC, with a peak flux of
5,230 pfu observed at 07/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 09 July, with a return to high levels
anticipated for 10 July under high-speed stream influences. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels
through 10 July.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near ambient background conditions.
Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was steady between 6
and 9 nT. The North-South (Bz) component was variable early in the
period, but turned and remained southward beginning around 07/1845 UTC
with a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speeds remained
between 362 and 445 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the
positive (away from the Sun) sector.
.Forecast...
Near background solar wind levels are expected to persist through 08
July. Enhancements are anticipated to begin on 09 July and continue into
10 July with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead
of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period quiet but reached unsettled
levels following the sustained negative Bz deflections in the later half
of the period.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet through 08
July. Conditions are anticipated to increase to unsettled and active
levels on 09-10 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with a
slight chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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