Message:25545 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 08 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <18229_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260708/1527Z 33433@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260708/1527Z 15652@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260708/1524Z 4586@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260708/1232Z 18229@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 081231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 08-Jul 10 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 08-Jul 10 2026
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
00-03UT 2.67 3.00 3.67
03-06UT 3.33 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.33 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.67 2.67
15-18UT 1.33 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
21-00UT 1.67 2.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active conditions are likely 09-10 Jul in response to -CH
HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2026
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 07 2026 1419 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2026
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts on 08-10 Jul.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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