Message:25489 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 07 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <18156_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260707/1351Z 33393@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260707/1350Z 15588@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260707/1348Z 4538@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260707/1232Z 18156@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 07-Jul 09 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 07-Jul 09 2026
Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09
00-03UT 0.67 1.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.67 1.33 3.67
06-09UT 0.67 1.33 2.67
09-12UT 0.67 1.67 2.67
12-15UT 1.67 1.33 2.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.33 1.67 2.00
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Active conditions are likely Jul 09 with the onset of recurrent -CH HSS
influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 07-Jul 09 2026
Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09
S1 or greater 10% 1% 1%
Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms exists through Jul 07 as active regions previously on the visible
disk are in geoeffective positions beyond the western limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 07-Jul 09 2026
Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09
R1-R2 55% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on Jul 07,
primarily due to active regions that have rotated beyond the western
limb. The probability of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio
blackouts drop on Jul 08 as these regions continue their transit with a
lingering chance driven by the complexity and development of Region
4482.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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