Message:25488 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 07 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <18133_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260707/1350Z 33392@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 4479 (N17, L=80)
rotated beyond the W limb. Region 4478 (S06W90, Eko/beta-gamma) added
low-level C-class flares. Region 4482 (S09E54, Eko/beta-gamma) was the
only active spot group to exhibit any sort of growth, with the remaining
regions remaining unchanged or in slight decay.
A CME first noted in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/0624 UTC that was
associated with a filament lift-off centered near N18E70, was analyzed
and is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 06 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
07 Jul, activity is expected to decrease. However, moderate levels
are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the
limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) levels on 08-09 Jul as these regions complete their
transit of the limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels on 07-09 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 07 Jul due to the recent and
potential flare activity of Regions 4479 and 4482.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds
averaged near 450 km/s. Total field strength was at 5-8 nT while Bz was
at +/- 5 nT. Phi was mostly positive.
.Forecast...
Nominal conditions are expected through 08 Jul. Enhanced conditions are
likely on 09 Jul due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative
polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 07-08 Jul. Unsettled to
active levels are likely on 09 July due to CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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