Message:25445 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 06 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <18017_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260706/2243Z 33364@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260706/2242Z 20729@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260706/2234Z 4497@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260706/1232Z 18017@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 06-Jul 08 2026
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
03-06UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
12-15UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 1.33 1.67
21-00UT 2.00 1.33 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
S1 or greater 10% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) on 06-07 Jul due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478, 4479, and 4482.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 05 2026 1757 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2026
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
R1-R2 75% 55% 20%
R3 or greater 20% 10% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 06 Jul. As
Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by 07 Jul, activity is
expected to decrease. However, moderate levels are likely to persist
until these regions rotate another day beyond the limb. Activity should
decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 08 Jul
as these regions complete their transit of the limb.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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