Message:25433 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 06 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <18016_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260706/1401Z 33354@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260706/1401Z 15512@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260706/1328Z 4484@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260706/1232Z 18016@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 061231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased slightly, but remained at high levels with five
M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares observed during the period. Region
4479 (N17W91, Eko/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for all five events,
the largest being an M5.3 (R2-Moderate) at 05/1757 UTC, as it transited
the W limb. One of the M-flares, an M1.4 at 05/1645 UTC, had an
associated Type II sweep (959 km/s velocity) and a CME off the WNW limb.
Modeling suggests this CME will pass well ahead of Earths orbit. Along
with the other three M-class flares, this region also contributed
multiple C-class flares throughout the period.
Regions 4478 (S06W83, Eko/beta-gamma) and 4482 (S09E61, Eko/beta-gamma)
each added low-level C-class flares. Region 4482 was the only active
spot group to exhibit any sort of growth, with the remaining regions
remaining unchanged or in slight decay.
A CME first noted in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/0624 UTC that was
associated with a filament lift-off centered near N18E70, was analyzed
and is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 06 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
07 Jul, activity is expected to decrease. However, moderate levels
are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the
limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) levels on 08 Jul as these regions complete their transit
of the limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels late in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels on 06-08 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 06-07 Jul due to the recent and
potential flare activity of Regions 4478, 4479, and 4482.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to wane from diminishing CME effects
from the 30 Jun CME, coupled with influence from +CH72. Total field
strength averaged 4-6 nT, the Bz component was mostly southward from -1
to -5 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased to average around 450 km/s.
Phi was near neutral with a slightly positive bias throughout the
period.
.Forecast...
Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to persist through 06
Jul from diminishing CME effects from the 30 Jun CME, coupled with
influence from +CH72. A return to near background levels is expected for
07-08 Jul, barring any interaction with potential CME activity from the
01-02 Jul events.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly unsettled with isolated active
periods early.
.Forecast...
Diminishing CME effects from the 30 Jun CME, coupled with decreasing
influence from +CH72, should keep conditions at quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods possible on 06 Jul. Barring
additional CME activity from the 01-02 Jul CME, mostly quiet to
unsettled levels are likely on 07-08 Jul.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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