Message:25432 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 06 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17995_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260706/1401Z 33353@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260706/1400Z 15510@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260706/1327Z 70291@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260706/1322Z 4482@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260706/0032Z 17995@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 060031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels with nine M-class (R1-Minor)
flares and one M-class (R2-Moderate) flare observed during the period.
The largest flare was an M5.3 observed at 05/1757 UTC from Region 4479
(N16W91, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) on the W limb. This region also produced
an M1.4 at 05/1645 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (959 km/s
velocity) and a CME off the WNW limb detected in LASCO imagery, which
modeling indicates to pass well ahead of Earth orbit. This region also
contributed five M-class (R1-Minor) and eight C5 or greater flares.
Foreshortening is now inhibiting accurate magnetic structure analysis,
but with the continued high flare activity, Region 4479 is presumed to
still contain at least one delta configuration as it transits the
western limb.
Region 4478 (S05W74, Eko/beta-gamma) produced a lone M1.4 event at
05/1100 UTC, but was otherwise mostly inactive. The region continued to
show decay, mostly in its trailing portion. Region 4480 (S17W94,
Hsx/alpha) added a single flare during the period; an M1.3/Sf flare at
05/0432 UTC. Region 4381 (N14E33, Bxo/beta) and Region 4483 (S09W29,
Bxo/beta) both were inactive throughout the period. Regions 4484
(N14E05, Bxo/beta) and 4485 (S09E13, Bxo/beta) were numbered during the
period.
Several CMEs were noted in LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the
period, but none are expected to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 06 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
07 Jul, activity is expected to decrease, but moderate levels
are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the
limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) levels on 08 Jul as these regions complete their transit
of the limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned
to near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 06-08 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 06-07 Jul due to the recent and
potential flare activity of Regions 4478 and 4479.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period still slightly enhanced following
the likely arrival of the 30 Jun CME. During the period, total field
strength (Bt) averaged 5 nT, the Bz component had only minor southward
deviations to -5 nT, and solar wind speeds reached a peak of 571 km/s at
about 05/0300 UTC and ended the period near 430 km/s. Phi was in a
variable mode through about 05/0600 UTC and mostly positive thereafter.
.Forecast...
Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to persist through 06
Jul from potential CME activity from the 01-02 Jul events, coupled with
influence from the positive polarity CH72. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for 07-08 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at a steady unsettled to active level.
.Forecast...
Influence from the 01-02 Jul CME arrival is anticipated on 06 Jul,
coupled with possible influence from +CH72. Unsettled to active levels
are expected 06 Jul. Barring additional CME activity, 07-08 Jul is
likely to see mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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