Message:25342 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Jul 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17881_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260705/1417Z 33287@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260705/1416z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:17881_N4SD
R:260705/1400Z @:K5DAT.NEWI.WI.USA.NA [ELK Grove Village, IL USA] #:7585 XrLin505c
R:260705/1400Z 44792@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260705/1400Z 55679@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260705/1359Z 3856@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
R:260705/1359Z 83592@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260705/1358Z 70230@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260705/1353Z 4433@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260705/1231Z 17881@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 051231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at high levels with twelve M-class (R1-Minor)
flares and one X-class (R3-Strong) flare observed during the period. The
largest flare was an X1.3 observed at 04/2041 UTC from newly numbered
Region 4482 (S08E69, Hsx/alpha) near the SE limb. This flare had an
associated Type II radio sweep (est 2,714 km/s) and a Tenflare radio
burst reaching 890 sfu. An associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2
imagery at ~04/2100 UTC moving off the ESE limb. Analysis indicated a
trajectory behind Earths orbit with no impacts at Earth expected. This
region also contributed a C8.5 flare at 04/1438 UTC.
Region 4479 (N16W82, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) again maintained its spot as
the top flare producer, adding ten M-class and multiple mid to upper
level C-class flares. Foreshortening is now inhibiting accurate magnetic
structure analysis, but with the continued high flare activity, it is
presumed to still contain at least one delta configuration as it
transits the western limb.
Region 4478 (S05W67, Eko/beta-gamma) produced a single M1.5 event at
04/1936 UTC, but was otherwise mostly inactive. The region continued to
show decay, mostly in its trailing portion. Region 4480 (S17W87,
Cao/beta) added a single flare during the period; an M1.3/Sf flare at
05/0432 UTC. Region 4381 (N14E40, Axx/alpha) and newly numbered Region
4483 (S06W22, Bxo/beta) both were inactive throughout the period.
Several CMEs were noted in LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the
period, but none are expected to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
06 Jul, activity is expected to begin decreasing, but moderate levels
are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the
limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) levels on 07 Jul as these regions complete their transit
of the limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned
to near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 05-07 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 05-06 Jul due to the recent and
potential flare activity of Regions 4478 and 4479.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced following the likely
arrival of the 30 Jun CME. Total field strength (Bt) reached a maximum
of 19 nT, the Bz component had only minor southward deviations, and
solar wind speeds were over 650 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative
orientation. Conditions slowly decreased as CME effects began to
diminish. Total field settled in around 5 nT, Bz turned southward after
05/0600 UTC, reaching as far south as -5 nT, and wind speeds declined to
end the period near 490 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative, with a
brief period of oscillating between sectors from 05/0000 UTC to 05/0600
UTC, before returning to a mostly negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to persist through
the remainder of 05 Jul. Possible influence from +CH72, combined with
additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events, are anticipated later on
05 Jul, before eventually tapering off throughout 06 Jul. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for 07 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity began the period with G2 (Moderate)
conditions, but has steadily decreased to end the period at active
levels.
.Forecast...
Influence from the 01-02 Jul CME arrival is anticipated on 05-06 Jul,
coupled with possible influence from +CH72. Active levels are expected,
with G1 (Minor) levels likely, on 05-06 Jul, with an isolated period of
G2 (Moderate) possible. Barring additional CME activity, 06 Jul is
likely to see lessened activity as influences wane, becoming mostly
quiet to unsettled on 07 Jul.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List