Message:25341 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <17882_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
00-03UT 3.33 3.33 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 4.00 1.33
06-09UT 2.67 3.33 1.33
09-12UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
15-18UT 3.00 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33
Rationale: Influence from the 01-02 Jul CME arrival is anticipated on
05-06 Jul, coupled with possible influence from +CH72. G1 (Minor) levels
are likely, on 05-06 Jul, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate)
possible.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
S1 or greater 20% 10% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) on 05-06 Jul due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 04 2026 2041 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
R1-R2 75% 65% 15%
R3 or greater 20% 10% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to remain at R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events
through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
06 Jul, activity is expected to begin decreasing, but moderate levels
are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the
limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels on 07 Jul as these regions complete their
transit of the limb.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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