Message:25340 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <17854_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260705/1354Z 33285@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260705/1354Z 15443@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260705/1352Z 4432@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260705/0032Z 17854@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
00-03UT 4.33 3.33 1.67
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 1.33
06-09UT 3.67 3.33 1.33
09-12UT 3.00 3.33 1.67
12-15UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
15-18UT 2.33 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are anticipated, with the
potential for G2 (Moderate) storming, early on 05 Jul due to possible
arrivals of CMEs that left the Sun on 01-02 Jul and a potential positive
polarity high speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
S1 or greater 20% 10% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 05-06 Jul.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 04 2026 2041 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2026
Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07
R1-R2 75% 60% 15%
R3 or greater 20% 10% 1%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on 05
Jul, decreasing to likely on 06 Jul. There is a slight chance for R3
(Strong) events through 06 Jul. Both decrease significantly on 07 Jul as
Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate beyond the western limb.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List