Message:25339 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 05 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17853_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels with 13 M-class (R1-Minor) and one
X-class (R3-Strong) flares observed during the period. The largest flare
was an X1.3 observed at 04/2041 UTC from newly numbered Region 4482
(S08E77, Hsx/alpha) on the SE limb, associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity of 2.714 km/s) and a tenflare reaching 890
sfu, as well as a slight chance for a proton event from this flare.
However, the primary contributor to flare activity was Region 4479
(N16W79, Fkc/beta-delta-gamma), which produced 12 M-class and multiple
C-class flares. This region continued to contain at least one delta
configuration. The largest sunspot region was Region 4478 (S06W59,
Fko/beta-gamma) produced a few C-class flares and an M1.5 event at
04/1936 UTC. The region continued to show decay, mostly in its trailing
portion. The remaining spot regions were quiet.
A CME associated with the X1.3 became visible in GOES CCOR1 at roughly
04/2230 UTC, which is during SOHO LASCO and STEREO data gaps. Analysis
is currently ongoing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
06 Jul, activity is likely to be at moderate levels on 06 Jul,
decreasing to a slight chance on 07 Jul as chances for M-flares begins
to decrease.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
slightly elevated, reaching a peak just under 2 pfu early on 04 Jul.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 05-07 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 05-06 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced in response to the
likely arrival of the 30 Jun CME shock. Total field strength (Bt)
reached a maximum of 24 nT at 04/0033 UTC, while the Bz component
reached a maximum southward extent of -19 nT at 04/0105 UTC. Wind speeds
varied between 550 km/s to about 642 km/s during the period. Phi was in
a mostly negative orientation during the period.
.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist through early 05 Jul. Possible influence from +CH72,
combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events, are likely
later on 05 Jul, eventually tapering off throughout 06 Jul. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for 07 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Enhanced geomagnetic field activity, G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) storming
conditions, was observed on 04 Jul.
.Forecast...
Influence from the 01-02 Jul CME arrival is expected on 05-06 Jul,
coupled with possible influence from +CH72. Active to G1 (Minor) levels
are expected on 05-06 Jul, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate)
possible. Barring additional CME activity, 06 Jul is likely
to see lessened activity as influences wane, becoming mostly quiet to
unsettled on 07 Jul.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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