Message:25332 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 04 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17776_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 041231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels with thirteen M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares during the period. Region 4479 (N17W72,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the main contributor, adding nine
M-class and multiple C-class flares. The M-class activity included an
M6.7 flare at 03/1811 UTC, the largest of the period. Associated with
this event was a Type II sweep (estimated velocity of 1,831 km/s) and a
203 sfu Tenflare. Additionally, the region produced: an M2.3/Sf at
04/0023 UTC, an M2.1/Sf at 04/0113 UTC, an M3.7/1n at 04/0332 UTC, an
M4.0 at 04/0342 UTC, an M1.3 at 04/0515 UTC, an M1.8 at 04/0807 UTC, an
M1.0/Sf at 04/0852 UTC, and an M3.2 at 04/1112 UTC.
Region 4478 (S06W54, Fko/beta-gamma) added a couple of M-flares as well,
including an impulsive M6.3/2b flare at 03/1859 UTC. Associated with
this flare was a 780 sfu Tenflare and a Type II sweep (estimated
velocity of 387 km/s). Additionally, 4478 produced an M1.5/Sf flare at
03/2008 UTC, and a plethora of C-class flares.
Region 4480 (S18W75, Dao/beta) added to the M-class flare count with two
of its own: an M1.4/1f flare at 03/1313 UTC and an M2.0/Sf at 04/0000
UTC. An unnumbered region just beyond the east limb added the remaining
M-flare: an M1.2 flare at 04/0201 UTC. This region will be monitored for
additional activity as it rotates onto the visible disk.
Regions 4478 and 4480 both exhibited decay throughout the period. Region
4479 added several intermediate spots as it approached the limb. New
Region 4481 (N14E53, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period.
LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME off the NWN portion of the
disk, first visible at 03/1824 UTC. A potential Earth-directed component
will be analyzed as more imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by
06 Jul, activity is likely to be at moderate levels, as chances for
M-flares begins to decrease.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
slightly elevated, reaching a peak just under 2 pfu.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 05-06 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced in response to the
likely arrival of the 30 Jun CME shock. Total field strength (Bt)
averaged near 12 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/-7 nT (with
an isolated deviation to -13 nT), and wind speeds averaged near 480
km/s. Just after 03/2100 UTC, an additional enhancement was observed,
potentially indicating the arrival of the main CME driver, or an
additional CME from 01 Jul. Total field increased to 24 nT. Bz was
initially north, but eventually saw a southward deviation to -19 nT.
Wind speeds increased from ~535 km/s to reach a peak of nearly 630 km/s.
Phi was predominantly positive until around 03/2130 UTC when it shifted
into a negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist for the remainder of 04 July. Possible influence
from +CH72, combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events,
are likely on 05 Jul, eventually tapering off throughout 06 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels the first
half of the period, then increased to G2 (Moderate) and G3 (Strong)
levels just after the turn of the UT day.
.Forecast...
Influence from the 30 Jun CME arrival is expected to persist, but
diminish over the remainder of 04 Jul. G2 (Moderate) conditions are
still likely, with conditions decreasing to G1 (Minor) to active levels
by the end of the day. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influence from +CH72, is likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated
period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible. Barring additional, unforeseen
CME activity, 06 Jul is likely to see lessened activity as influences
wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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