Message:25331 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 04 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <17775_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260705/1344Z 33276@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260705/1343Z 55024@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260705/1343Z 70219@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260705/1339Z 4422@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260704/1232Z 17775@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 041231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 04-Jul 06 2026
Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06
00-03UT 6.00 (G2) 2.67 3.00
03-06UT 7.33 (G3) 2.33 4.00
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 3.33
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 3.33
12-15UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 4.33 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 2.00
21-00UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 2.00
Rationale: Influence from the 30 Jun CME arrival is expected to persist,
but diminish over the remainder of 04 Jul. G2 (Moderate) conditions are
still likely, with conditions decreasing to G1 (Minor) to active levels
by the end of the day. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined
with possible influence from +CH72, is likely to bring active to
additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated
period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible. Barring additional, unforeseen
CME activity, 06 Jul is likely to see lessened activity as influences
wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026
Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06
S1 or greater 20% 20% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare activity of
Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 03 2026 1811 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 04-Jul 06 2026
Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06
R1-R2 75% 75% 60%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and
4480 rotate around the west limb by 06 Jul, activity is likely to be at
moderate levels, as chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events begins to
decrease.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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