Message:25261 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 04 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17747_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260704/2043z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:17747_N4SD
R:260704/2033Z 54954@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels due to multiple (R2-Moderate)
flares from Region 4478 (S06W46, Fko/beta-gamma) and 4479 (N17W66,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 4479 produced an M6.7 flare at 03/1811
UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II sweep (estimated velocity
of 1,831 km/s) and a 203 sfu Tenflare. Shortly afterward, Region 4478
produced an impulsive M6.3/2b flare at 03/1859 UTC. Associated with this
flare was a 780 sfu Tenflare and a Type II sweep (estimated velocity of
387 km/s). Earlier in the period Region 4480 (S18W70, Eai/beta-gamma)
produced an (R1-Minor) M1.4/1f flare at 03/1313 UTC. All three regions
exhibited decay throughout the period, with Region 4478 losing its delta
configuration. New Region 4481 (N14E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this
period.
LASCO C2 imagery detected a slow-moving CME off the NWN portion of the
disk, first visible at 03/1824 UTC. A potential Earth-directed component
will be analyzed as more imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 06 Jul.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 04-06 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the recent and potential flare
activity of Regions 4478 and 4479 on 04-06 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background levels until about
03/1119 UTC when reflections of a weak CME was detected: wind speeds
increased from about 325 km/s to 460 km/s, total field strength (Bt)
jumped from an average of 6 nT to 11 nT, though the Bz component was
mostly weakly north. After 03/1119 UTC, wind speeds further increased to
near 550 km/s by periods end. The Bt component reached a max of 21 nT at
03/2342 UTC, while Bz varied between +10 to -16 nt. The phi angle
remained in a mostly positive orientation (away from the Sun) until
roughly 03/2125 UTC when it flipped to the negative sector.
.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist into early 04 July. Possible influence from +CH72
combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events are likely
later on 04 Jul, persisting through 05-06 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.
.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels,
on 04 Jul. Further CME activity from 01-02 Jul, combined with possible
influences from +CH72, are likely to bring active to additional G1
(Minor) storm conditions on 05 Jul, with an isolated period of G2
(Moderate) levels possible. 06 Jul is likely to see a lessened activity
as influences wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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