Message:25141 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17668_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260703/1345Z 33082@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260703/1344Z 15313@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260703/1341Z 4348@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260703/1232Z 17668@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels as Region 4479 (N16W59,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.2 (R1-Minor) flare at 02/2312 UTC.
This was the largest, and only M-class, flare of the period. Towards the
end of the period, this region also produced an atypical long-duration
C9.2 flare that peaked at 03/0951 UTC. Region 4480 (S17W63,
Eai/beta-gamma) contributed an isolated C-class flare, while Region 4478
(S06W39, Fko/beta-gamma) remained mostly quiet. All three regions
exhibited decay throughout the period, with Region 4478 losing its delta
configuration.
The narrow eruption north of the solar disk mentioned in the previous
discussion was modeled and deemed to be too far north of the ecliptic
for an Earth-directed component. A subsequent CME near the same location
was observed at approximately 03/0224 UTC in LASCO C2 imagery, as well
as STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event also had a trajectory too far north
to be geoeffective.
Aside from the CMEs thought to be inbound from 30 Jun and 01-02 Jul, no
new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 03-05 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential of Regions
4478 and 4479 on 03-05 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background levels for most of the
period. Total field strength averaged around 6-7 nT, the Bz component
was mostly north, and solar wind speeds ranged between 300-400 km/s. The
phi angle was in a positive orientation. At the end of the period, at
around 03/1120 UTC, a weak enhancement in the solar wind environment was
likely the arrival of the anticipated CME from 30 Jun. Total field
increased from 6 nT to 12 nT, Bz weakly deviated southward to -6 nT, and
solar winds increased from ~400 km/s to around 488 km/s.
.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions, likely from the 30 Jun CME, are
expected to persist into early 04 July. Possible influence from +CH72
combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events are likely
later on 04 Jul, persisting through 05 Jul and beyond.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is likely to bring G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels
beginning on 03 July and continuing into 04 Jul. Further CME activity
from 01-02 Jul, combined with possible influences from +CH72, are likely
to bring active to additional G1 (Minor) storm conditions, with an
isolated period of G2 (Moderate) levels possible.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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