Message:25140 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 03 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17650_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260703/1339Z 20357@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260703/1339Z 487@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
A series of M-class flares kept solar activity at moderate levels (R1
Minor), with flare activity observed from Regions 4479 (N17W52,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) and 4480 (S16W56, Eai/beta-gamma). Region 4479
produced the largest flare of the period, an M4.2/Sf observed at 02/0156
UTC. All of the flare activity over the past 36 hours produced some form
of Earth-directed CME activity reflected in the solar wind and geospace
forecast. Over the past 24 hours, the largest region on the disk, Region
4478 (S05W33, Fki/beta-gamma-delta), remained mostly quiet.
An 1n H-alpha flare, which peaked at 01/1211 UTC, appears to have been
associated with dimming and a slow moving CME with an Earth-directed
component first identified in CCOR-1 imagery around 01/1400 UTC. An
additional CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 02/0236 UTC.
This CME is presumed to be associated with a long duration M4.2 flare
from Region 4479. Modeling efforts suggest this CME will catch up to and
overtake the one mentioned above with an estimated arrival on late 05 to
early 06 July.
A narrow eruption north of the solar disk was first seen in LASCO C2 at
02/1224 UTC. It is also seen to the north-east in STEREO coronagraph
imagery, indicating an Earth-facing source; however, imagery suggests
the eruption may be too far north of the ecliptic for an Earth-directed
component. Modeling is currently ongoing to confirm.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
through 05 Jul, from Region 4478, 4479 and 4480.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate
to high levels on 03-05 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential of Regions
4479 and 4478 on 03-05 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at predominately background levels during the
period. Total field strength gradually decreased from about 9 to 6 nT,
while the Bz component was mostly north to 9 nT before turning mostly
south to -2 nT after 02/1211 UTC. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased
from about 400 km/s to near 325 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was
in a mostly negative orientation.
.Forecast...
The CME from 30 Jun is expected to arrive early to mid UTC day on 03
July, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are expected to
persist into early 04 July. Additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul
events are expected later on 04 to 05 Jul, persisting through 05 Jul and
beyond.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is expected to bring G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions beginning on 03 July and
continuing into 04 Jul. Additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul is
expected to bring active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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