Message:25033 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 02 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17608_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 021231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
A series of M-class flares kept solar activity at high levels, with
the majority of them from Region 4479 (N17W45, Eki/beta-gamma-delta).
Region 4478 (S05W27, Fki/beta-gamma-delta)produced the largest flare of
the period, an M8.7 at 01/2309 UTC.
An earlier flare from Region 4479, an M1.3 at 01/1008 UTC accompanied by
a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked at 01/1211 UTC, appears to have been
associated with dimming and a slow moving CME with an Earth-directed
component first identified in CCOR-1 imagery around 01/1400 UTC. An
additional CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 02/0236 UTC.
This CME is presumed to be associated with a long duration M4.2 flare
from Region 4479. Modeling efforts suggest this CME will catch up to and
overtake the one mentioned above with an estimated arrival on late 05 to
early 06 July.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
particularly from Region 4479.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels, with a slight chance for high levels during the period. There is
a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to
the flare potential of Regions 4479, and 4478.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with CME passage. Total
field strength gradually decreased from 15 to 9 nT. The Bz component was
north. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be relatively nominal in the wake
of the CME from the 27th. The CME from the 30th is expected to arrive
early on 03 July, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are
expected to last into 04 July. There is enough uncertainty around the
CME timing that an arrival late on 02 July is possible.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 June is expected to bring G1-G2
(minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions beginning on 03 July and
likely continuing into 04 July.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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