Message:25018 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 02 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17591_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 020031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
A series of M-class flares kept solar activity at high levels, with
all of them from Region 4479 (N17W38, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). The
largest of the flares was an M3.5 at 01/1943 UTC.
An earlier flare from this region, an M1.3 at 01/1008 UTC accompanied by
a 1N H-alpha flare which peaked at 01/1211 UTC, appears to have been
associated with dimming and a CME first identified in CCOR-1 imagery
around 01/1400 UTC. Initial analysis suggest the CME has an
Earth-directed component although the speed derived from the available
imagery was only 300-450 km/s. Further analysis is needed to increase
confidence.
Flux emergence and some consolidation around the leader and trailer
spots was observed in Region 4479 during the period. Region 4478
(S05W20, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8.5/2b flare at 01/2309 UTC
following occasional C-class flaring. This region also exhibited flux
emergence in the intermediate spots and around the leader spot. Finally,
Region 4480 (S16W43, Csi/beta-gamma) was quiescent although some
intermediate spots developed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong),
particularly from Region 4479.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
moderate, with a peak flux of 452 pfu at 01/1625 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels, with a slight chance for high levels during the period. There is
a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to
the flare potential of Regions 4479, and 4478.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced with CME passage. Total field
strength gradually increased to 19 nT early in the period before
gradually declining to approximately 10 nT by the end of the period. The
Bz component was positive after 01/0100. Solar wind speeds have ranged
from approximately 360-425 km/s.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be relatively nominal in the wake
of the CME from the 27th. The CME from the 30th is expected to arrive
early on 03 July, bringing disturbed solar wind conditions that are
expected to last into 04 July. There is enough uncertainty around the
CME timing that an arrival mid-to-late on 02 July is possible.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity included a minor storm period (00-03 UTC)
with CME passage, and was quiet to unsettled for the remainder.
.Forecast...
CME arrival from the event on 30 Jun is expected to bring G2 (moderate)
geomagnetic storm conditions beginning on 03 July. As mentioned
above, there is some uncertainty on the timing that an arrival mid to
late on 02 July cannot be ruled out. Conditions are expected to be at
quiet to active levels before the CME arrives. Conditions are expected
to decrease to minor storm levels by 04 July.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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