Message:24988 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 01 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17562_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260701/1341z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:17562_N4SD
R:260701/1329Z 20241@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260701/1322Z 4255@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260701/1232Z 17562@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.1 flare at 30/2050 UTC
from AR 4479 (N16W31, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). Associated with the flare
were Type II (1496 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 410 sfu tenflare, and
EUV dimming observed at 30/2059 UTC suggesting a CME emission. This
region was also responsible for four impulsive low-level M-class flares.
Other activity included an M5.8 flare at 30/1257 UTC from Region 4475
(S09W70, Dai/beta). Region 4478 (S05W13, Fki/beta-gamma-delta), the
largest region on the disk, was not as active but produced a C9.1 flare
at 30/1958 UTC. These three regions appeared to be in a growth phase.
Several small deltas were observed on the periphery of Regions 4478 and
4479.
A full-halo CME associated with the X1.1 flare is first visible in
GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at 30/2145 UTC. CME analysis is ongoing at the
time of this writing, but preliminary analysis suggests Earth impacts
03-04 Jul.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) due
to the flare potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 5,687 pfu observed at 30/1315 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again reach high
levels on 01 and 03 Jul. Moderate levels are likely on 02 Jul due to the
possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the flare potential
of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to CME arrival. Total field
strength gradually increased to 18 nT throughout the period. The Bz
component has been variable with a few southward deflections to -10 nT.
Solar wind speeds have been steady near 425 km/s. Phis has been
negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 01 Jul
as CME active persists. Further enhancements are possible late on 01 to
early on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of the 27 Jun CME. An
additional enhancement is possible on 03 Jul due to the likely arrival
of a CME that left the Sun late on 30 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet until the arrival of the
aforementioned CME that left the Sun on 26 Jun. Active to G1 (Minor)
conditions were observed during the latter half of the summary period.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated periods
reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity persists.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the possible
arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is
lower for this event. G1-G2 conditions are possible by 03 Jul pending
further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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