Message:24987 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 01 Jul 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <17561_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.67
03-06UT 3.33 4.00 2.33
06-09UT 1.67 3.00 2.33
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 2.33 2.00 5.67 (G2)
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 4.67 (G1)
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 4.33
21-00UT 4.33 1.67 4.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated
periods reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity
persists. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the
possible arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but
confidence is lower for this event. G1-G2 conditions are possible by 03
Jul pending further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
S1 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms increases beginning 03 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to
develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with
Earth.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 30 2026 2050 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
R1-R2 70% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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