Message:24974 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 01 Jul 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <17544_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260701/0853Z 54630@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260701/0853Z 69960@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
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R:260701/0032Z 17544@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
00-03UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 4.00 1.67
06-09UT 3.67 3.00 1.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 1.33
12-15UT 2.33 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 4.33 1.67 1.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are early 01 Jul in response to
ongoing influences from the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 26
Jun. Analysis is ongoing to evaluate potential Earth impacts from the 30
June X1.1 CME, with preliminary tracking suggesting an arrival over
03-04 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
S1 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms increases beginning 03 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to
develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with
Earth.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 30 2026 2050 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03
R1-R2 70% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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