Message:24940 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 30 Jun 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17501_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels alongside frequent C-class
flares. Region 4475 (S09W56, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) experienced
additional spot growth in its trailing spots and maintained gamma and
delta signatures in its intermediate area. This resulted in an M1.3
flare at 30/0116 UTC and lower level C-class flares. Region 4478
(S05E01, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) underwent consolidation in its leading
spot group while continuing to decay in its intermediate area and was
responsible for a C4.1 flare at 29/0340 UTC. Region 4479 (N16W17,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited rapid flux emergence over the period and
a strengthened mixed polarity configuration in its intermediate area
resulting in a M1.4 flare at 29/2140 UTC, which the largest event of the
period.
Other notable activity related to Region 4479 included a C3.5 flare at
29/1730 UTC. USAF SOON resources reported a disappearing solar filament
associated with this event that was centered near N13W05 at
approximately 29/1737 UTC. However, no resulting CME has been observed
in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely reach moderate levels through day three (02
July) with isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio
Blackouts) given the flare potential and history of Regions 4475, 4478
and 4479.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 2,637 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to normal to
moderate levels on 30 Jun with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
26 Jun and then remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 Jul.
There is a chance that the 2 MeV electron flux could remain at high
levels for a majority of 30 Jun depending on CME arrival timing.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 01 Jul. Probabilities of an S1 (Minor) or greater event
increase to a slight chance on 02 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 rotate
into a more prevalent position for connection with Earth.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at an ambient-like state for most of the
period. Near 1110 UTC, a weak enhancement was observed - likely
associated with the the arrival of a transient that left the Sun on
26-27 Jun. Total field averaged 3-4 nT before increasing to 9 nT while
the Bz component had a southern deflection to -5 nT. Solar wind speed
data was questionable but appeared to remain between 350-450 km/s. Phi
was negative.
.Forecast...
A disturbed solar wind environment due to CME passage from events that
left the Sun on 26-27 Jun is anticipated for 30 Jun and 01 July.
These enhancements are then expected to wane over the course of 02 July.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for isolated
periods reaching G2 (Moderate) levels, on 30 Jun with the possible
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun. Unsettled to active
conditions are then expected during the latter half of 01 Jul with
arrival of a second CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is
lower given the nature of this event. Any lingering unsettled to active
conditions are expected to continue into the early portions of 02 Jul
before mostly quiet conditions prevail.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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