Message:24939 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 30 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17470_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels alongside frequent C-class
flares. Region 4475 (S09W49, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) experienced
additional spot growth in its trailing spots and maintained gamma and
delta signatures in its intermediate area. This resulted in a C6.1/1F
flare at 29/1740 UTC and other lower level C-class flares. Region 4478
(S05E08, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) underwent consolidation in its leading
spot group while continuing to decay in its intermediate area and was
responsible for a C4.1 flare at 29/0340 UTC. Region 4479 (N16W10,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited rapid flux emergence over the period and
a strengthened mixed polarity configuration in its intermediate area
resulting in a M1.4 flare at 29/2140 UTC, which the largest event of the
period.
Other notable activity related to Region 4479 included a C3.5 flare at
29/1730 UTC. USAF SOON resources reported a disappearing solar filament
associated with this event that was centered near N13W05 at
approximately 29/1737 UTC. However, no resulting CME has been observed
in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely reach moderate levels through day three (02
July) with isolated M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio
Blackouts) given the flare potential and history of Regions 4475, 4478
and 4479.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 2,890 pfu observed at 29/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to normal to
moderate levels on 30 Jun with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
26 Jun and then remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 Jul.
There is a chance that the 2 MeV electron flux could remain at high
levels for a majority of 30 Jun depending on CME arrival timing.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 01 Jul. Probabilities of an S1 (Minor) or greater event
increase to a slight risk on 02 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 rotate into
a more prevalent position for connection with Earth.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to an ambient-like state. Total field
averaged 3-4 nT while the Bz component remained at or near neutral.
Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from approximately 430 km/s to 330
km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
A disturbed solar wind environment due to CME passage from events that
left the Sun on 26 and 27 Jun is anticipated for 30 Jun and 01 July.
These enhancements are then expected to wane over the course of 02 July.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for isolated
periods reaching G2 (Moderate) levels, on 30 Jun with the arrival of a
CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun. Unsettled to active conditions are then
expected during the latter half of 01 Jul with arrival of a second CME
that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is lower given the nature of
this event. Any lingering unsettled to active conditions are expected to
linger into the early portions of 02 Jul before mostly quiet conditions
prevail.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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