Message:24905 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 29 Jun 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17378_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels with C-class flare activity from
Region 4475 (S10W33, Dai/beta-gamma) and 4478 (S06E20,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). The region produced the largest flare of the
period, a C9.5 at 28/2117 UTC. This region earlier produced a long
duration C-flare was at ~27/1809 UTC, from the area around Region 4475.
A possible associated faint CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph
imagery, beginning at approximately 27/1848 UTC. Modeling of the event
was difficult, due to the weak structure of the CME, resulting in a very
low-confidence estimated arrival time of late on 01 Jul.
Region 4475 exhibited weak redistribution of the leader spots, and
produced several other low-level C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 4479 (N16E02, Dai/beta) displayed weak development, and was the
other contributor to the C-class activity. The remaining regions on the
disk were mostly unchanged and inactive throughout the period.
Several filaments/prominences lifted off during the period, with the
resulting CMEs determined to not have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
29-30 Jun and 01 Jul, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due
to the potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a
maximum flux of 2,627 pfu at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 01
Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect weakening negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream influences. Total magnetic field strength
averaged between 2-4 nT, the Bz component hovered between +/-3 nT, and
solar wind speeds decreased from 555 km/s to start the period to ~425
km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained mostly in a negative
(towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected reflect the continued weakening
of the negative polarity CH HSS through early 29 Jun. A slight
possibility remains for a CME that left the Sun on 22 Jun to arrive at
Earth by the early 29 Jun. A gradual return to a more normal background
state is expected for most of 29 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected
to return by late on 29 Jun to early to midday on 30 Jun through 01 Jul
with the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun late on 26
Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of 29 Jun. Unsettled to
active conditions are then expected late on 29 Jun into early on 30 Jun,
with isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions likely, due to the
potential arrival of the 26 Jun CME. Quiet to isolated active conditions
are expected for 01 Jul under weakening CME conditions.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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