Message:24850 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 28 Jun 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17327_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3MEL|KC3SMW|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260628/1330z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:17327_N4SD
R:260628/1328Z 20079@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260628/1319Z 10000@KC3SMW.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260628/1312Z 69810@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260628/1310Z 4107@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260628/1231Z 17327@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. A long duration C-flare was
observed, beginning at ~27/1809 UTC, emanating from the entire area
around Region 4475 (S10W29, Dai/beta-gamma). During the extended event,
a more impulsive double-peaked C7.4/Sf flare was observed, centered near
the dominant spots of the region. A possible associated faint CME was
observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery, beginning at approximately
27/1848 UTC. Modeling of the event was difficult, due to the weak
structure of the CME, resulting in a very low-confidence estimated
arrival time of late on 01 Jul.
Region 4475 exhibited weak redistribution of the leader spots, and
produced several other low-level C-class flares throughout the period.
Region 4479 (N15E08, Dai/beta) displayed weak development, and was the
other contributor to the C-class activity, adding a couple of low-level
flares during the period. The remaining regions on the disk were mostly
unchanged and inactive throughout the period.
Several filaments/prominences lifted off during the period, with the
resulting CMEs determined to not have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
28-30 Jun, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4475, 4478, and 4479.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a
maximum flux of 3,792 pfu at 27/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 28-30 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 30 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect weakening negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream influences. Total magnetic field strength
averaged between 2-4 nT, the Bz component hovered between +/-3 nT, and
solar wind speeds decreased from 555 km/s to start the period to ~465
km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained mostly in a negative
(towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected reflect the continued weakening
of the negative polarity CH HSS through 28 Jun. A slight possibility
remains for a CME that left the Sun on 22 Jun to arrive at Earth by the
end of 28 Jun. A gradual return to a more normal background state is
expected for most of 29 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected to return
by late on 29 Jun to early to midday on 30 Jun with the anticipated
arrival of the CME that left the Sun late on 26 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are possible on 28 Jun if the anticipated
CME from 24 Jun arrives. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions are expected
under weakening CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for most of 29 Jun. Unsettled to active conditions are then expected
late on 29 Jun into early on 30 Jun, with isolated minor storm
(G1-Minor) conditions likely, due to the potential arrival of the 26 Jun
CME.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List