Message:24814 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 28 Jun 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17283_N4SD>
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R:260628/0247Z 83108@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with numerous C-class flares from
Regions 4473 (S07, L=144), 4475 (S10W19, Dai/beta-gamma), 4478 (S06E33,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), and 4479 (N15E16, Dai/beta). Region 4478
continued to develop intermediate spots, observed overall growth, and
maintained a weak delta configuration. This region was responsible for
several C-class flares. Despite an overall decaying trend, Region 4475
added multiple C-class flares during the period as well to include a
long duration, double peak C7.4 event at 27/2102 UTC and 27/2111 UTC.
Regions 4477 (S15E13, Bxo/beta) and 4479 also exhibited development
during the period, yet both remained mostly quiet. Region 4476 (N08W44,
Axx/alpha) continued to decay and was inactive. New Region 4480 (S18E07,
Dao/beta developed just to the SW of Region 4477.
No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
27-29 Jun, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4475 and 4478.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and reached a
maximum flux of 3,792 pfu at 27/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 28-30 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 30 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were still slightly elevated this period as
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences weakened.
Total magnetic field strength averaged between 2-4 nT. The Bz component
rotated between +/-3 nT through the period. Solar wind speed was near
675 km/s beginning in the period before slowly decreasing to ~525 km/s
by the end of the period. Phi was mostly in a negative (towards the Sun)
orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected reflect the continued weakening of
the negative polarity CH HSS through 28 Jun. Early on 28 Jun, a CME that
left the Sun on 22 Jun is anticipated to arrive at Earth, providing
additional enhancements to the near-Earth environment. A gradual return
to a more normal background state is expected on 29 Jun. Enhanced
conditions are expected to return early to mid on 30 Jun due to the CME
that left the Sun late on 26 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely on 28 Jun due to the negative
polarity CH HSS influences and a potential CME arrival. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on 29 Jun. Active to isolated minor storm
(R1-Minor) conditions are expected on 30 Jun due to a potential CME
arrival.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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