Message:24796 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 27 Jun 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17185_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4478 (S06E41,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to develop intermediate spots, observed
overall growth, and maintained a weak delta configuration. This region
was responsible for the largest flare of the period, a C5.7/ Sf at
26/1248 UTC, as well as several other C-class flares. Despite an overall
decaying trend, Region 4475 (S10W14, Dai/beta-gamma) added multiple
C-class flares during the period as well. Regions 4477 (S15E20,
Eao/beta) and 4479 (N15E23, Dao/beta) also exhibited development during
the period, yet both remained mostly quiet. Region 4476 (N08W37,
Axx/alpha) continued to decay and was inactive.
A CME first observed in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery at
approximately 26/2230 UTC was analyzed and determined to likely have at
least a partially Earth-directed component. Anticipated arrival at Earth
will likely be early on 30 Jun.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
27-29 Jun, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4475 and 4478.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels and reached a
maximum flux of 1,636 pfu at 26/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 27-29 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 29 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were still slightly elevated this period as
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences weakened.
Total magnetic field strength averaged around 5 nT. The Bz component
rotated between +/-5 nT early before turning mostly northward by the end
of the period. Solar wind speed was near 650 km/s for most of the period
before slowly decreasing to ~560 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was
mostly in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected reflect the continued weakening of
the negative polarity CH HSS through 27 Jun. Early on 28 Jun, a CME that
left the Sun on 22 Jun is anticipated to arrive at Earth, providing
additional enhancements to the near-Earth environment. A gradual return
to a more normal background state is expected on 29 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely on 27-28 Jun due to the negative
polarity CH HSS influences and a potential CME arrival on 28 Jun. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 29 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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