Message:24766 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 27 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <17154_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|N3HYM|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260627/0301z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:17154_N4SD
R:260627/0259Z 8228@N3HYM.#FRDK.MD.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260627/0248Z 4011@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260627/0032Z 17154@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with C-level activity observed from
Regions 4475 (S09W06, Dai/beta-gamma) and 4478 (S06E46,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare of the period was a C5.7/ Sf at
26/1248 UTC from Region 4478. This region has rotated far enough onto
the disk to mitigate foreshortening effects, allowing a delta
configuration to be observed. Regions 4477 (S13E27, Cro/beta) and 4479
(N16E31, Dao/beta) showed new emergence early in the period. The
remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
A CME was first observed in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery at
approximately 26/2230. This event likely originated from either the
southern polar region of the Sun or from far side activity. Further
analysis to rule out any Earth-directed component will be conducted in
the upcoming period as additional imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
27-29 Jun, with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater), primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4475 and 4478.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 26/1345 UTC,
and reached a maximum flux of 1,636 pfu at 26/1740 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 27-29 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 29 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated this period from negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream influences. Total magnetic field strength
(Bt) remained steady at 5-6 nT. A variable Bz component rotated between
+/-5 nT. The solar wind speed began the period at ~700 km/s and very
slowly decreased to ~650 kms by periods end. Phi was largely in a
negative (towards the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated/disturbed through 27
Jun due to the continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Early on 28 Jun, a CME that left the Sun on 22 Jun may arrive at Earth
orbit and disturb the near-Earth environment even further. A gradual
return to a more normal background is expected on 29 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely on 27-28 Jun due to the negative
polarity CH HSS influences and a potential CME arrival on 28 Jun. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 29 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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