Message:24673 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 25 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16998_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with frequent C-level activity in the
SE quadrant of the solar disk. The largest flare of the period was a
C3.8 at 24/1441 UTC from Region 4478 (S06E75, Fkc/beta-gamma), which is
the large sunspot that Solar Orbiter had been tracking across the Suns
farside. This region is still suffering from foreshortening effects, so
its classification is low-mod confidence. While the majority of the
flaring activity this period came from 4478, Region 4475 (S09E21,
Cai/beta-gamma) also produced several small C-flares as additional
trailing spots began to emerge. Regions 4472 (S15E02, Axx/alpha) and
4473 (S09E13, Bxo/alpha) continued to decay throughout the period.
Region 4479 (N14E58, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
25-27 Jun, with a high chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a
slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong), primarily due to the potential
of Region 4478.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 25-27 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 27 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated this period from a mix of negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream onset and minor magnetic
transient influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged between
8 and 16 nT, with a variable Bz component that had several southward
deflections between -5 and -11 nT. The solar wind speed began the period
averaging 350 km/s then increased sharply at ~24/0400 UTC to ~450 km/s.
This was followed by another notable jump in speed beginning around
24/1700 UTC, ending the reporting period at approximately 600 km/s. Phi
was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) but did have an hour-long
positive interval at approximately 24/0950 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated/disturbed through 27
Jun due to the continued influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. After onset of -CH HSS
influences, the geomagnetic field rose to unsettled to active levels.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely through 27 Jun due to the
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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