Message:24638 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Wed, 24 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16927_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels, with frequent high B-level/low
C-level activity mostly on the East limb. The largest flare of the
period was a partially occulted C8.7 flare on the East limb at 23/2325
UTC. Regions 4472 (S14E15, Cri/beta), 4473 (S09E26, Hrx/alpha), and 4474
(N03W89, Hsx/alpha) exhibited substantial decay and fragmentation this
period. Region 4470 (N07W24, Bxo/beta) decayed nearly to plage. Two new
groups were numbered this period: Region 4476 (N08E11, Dai/beta) had
slow but continual flux emergence in its intermediary area and Region
4477 (S13E68, Bxo/beta) rotated further into view as a relatively stable
and unremarkable bipolar group.
NSO GONG white light and NASA/SDO continuum imagery began showing a
large penumbra rotating onto the south-eastern limb (at approximately
S06 latitude), which is likely the leading section of the large spot
group observed by ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter. It is anticipated to rotate
into Earth-view on 24 Jun. Once the spot group fully rotates on-disk, it
will be analyzed and numbered.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery,
though a large farside eruption was observed to the northeast and is
first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 23/1848 UTC and GOES CCOR1
imagery at 23/2000 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
24-26 Jun, with an increasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares primarily due to the potential of the farside region(s)
anticipated to soon rotate onto the visible disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 24-26 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 26 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels for the majority of the
reporting period, with total magnetic field strength (Bt) at or below 6
nT, no significant periods of southward Bz, phi largely negative, and
solar wind speeds approximately 350 km/s. At 23/1056 UTC, a magnetic
transient began passing through the near-Earth environment: Bt began
increasing and eventually reached 11 nT at 23/1858 UTC, when the wind
speed also increased to approximately 375 km/s, with Bz deflecting
northward and maintaining an average of ~+4 nT for several hours.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 26 Jun
due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and
a potential minor glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are likely through 26 Jun due to the
anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS and glancing blow
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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