Message:24557 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 22 Jun 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16722_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4473 (S08E56, Eai/beta-gamma)
produced an M2.6 flare at 21/0246 UTC, followed by an M6.8/2b flare
(R2-Moderate) at 21/1929 UTC; the strongest of the period. A Type II
radio sweep (est. 380 km/s) was associated with the second event.
Further coronagraph imagery is need to determine if an Earth-directed
CME was produced. The regions leader spots continued to develop over
the past 24 hours. The other two spotted active regions on the disk only
exhibited minor changes.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
22-24 Jun, with an increasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 22-24 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Total
magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT. No significant periods of
southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds varied between ~390-330
km/s. Phi angle was oriented in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-23 Jun.
Enhanced conditions are expected on 24 Jun due to the anticipated onset
of negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
over 22-23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 24 Jun due to
the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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