Message:24516 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 21 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16623_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|KI0BK|N5MDT|KR8X|N2MH|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260621/0910z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:16623_N4SD
R:260621/0910Z 29731@KI0BK.#NEKS.KS.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260621/0902Z 932@N5MDT.#STX.TX.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260621/0901Z 10965@KR8X.#NTX.TX.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260621/0900z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:16623_N4SD
R:260621/0900Z 53946@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.25
R:260621/0859Z 69397@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260621/0857Z 3743@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260621/0032Z 16623@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 210031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4472 (S14E54, Dao/beta)
produced an M1.3 flare (R1-Minor) at 20/0451 UTC, the strongest of the
period. Newly numbered Region 4473 (S08E69, Eko/beta) added an M1.0/Sf
(R1) at 20/1500 UTC, as well as a C4.8/Sf flare at 20/2205 UTC. Growth
was observed in Region 4473 as it rotated further on to the visible
disk. Multiple areas of pores were observed in the western hemisphere
but most decayed before becoming sunspots. The remaining numbered active
regions were either stable or in gradual decay.
A CME associated with the M1.3 flare at 20/0151 UTC, and first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery off the E at 20/0212 UTC, is expected to miss Earth.
Another CME, first visible in C2 imagery at 20/0312 UTC, was associated
with activity on the far side and is not Earth-directed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels on 21-23 Jun, with
a chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares due to the increased magnetic
complexity of Regions 4472 and 4473.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels over 21-23 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels through 23 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced. Total magnetic field
strength was between 5-7 nT. The Bz component was briefly observed as
far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 360-419 km/s. Phi
angle was oriented in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to transition to background levels
over 21 Jun. Background levels are expected to persist through 23 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH
HSS influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels on 21 Jun as CH HSS influences diminish. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected to prevail over 22-23 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List