Message:24381 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 18 Jun 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16373_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 181231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low with only C-class solar flare activity. Region
4465 (N07W56, Cso/beta) underwent some decay and only produced a
low-level C-class flare. Region 4469 (S16, L=248) decayed to plage and
was inactive. Region 4470 (N07E47, Dao/beta) underwent some growth,
but did not increase in magnetic complexity. The largest solar flare of
the period, a C2.5 at 17/1506 UTC, came from just beyond the west limb
with the likely source being recently rotated out of view Region 4464
(S14, L=342). New Region 4471 (N17E22, Cso/beta) was numbered and was
inactive.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels 18-20 Jun, with a
slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) solar flares due primarily to the
combined flare probabilities of Regions 4465 and 4470.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue reaching
moderate levels 18-20 Jun; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength was
mostly below 5 nT while the Bz component was at benign levels. Solar win
speeds were between 400-450 km/s. Phi switched to a negative orientation
after 17/2200 UTC.
.Forecast...
Mild solar wind disturbance and enhancements are anticipated through 20
Jun due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled on 18 Jun in
response to weak CH HSS influences. Slightly more response is forecast
19-20 Jun with unsettled to active conditions likely due to additional
and continuing CH HSS effects.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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