Message:24254 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 15 Jun 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
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FXXX12 KWNP 151231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class activity was
observed. Region 4465 (N08W17, Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth, while
the three remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 15-17 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with peak
values observed at 1,581 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
15-17 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 17 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influences of a negative
polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength averaged ~4 nT. No
significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds
gradually declined from ~500 km/s to ~425 km/s over the past 24
hours. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced on 16-17 Jun due
to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
12 Jun, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels on
15 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 16 Jun due to the
anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun.
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jun due to waning CME
influences and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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