Message:24221 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 15 Jun 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <16090_N4SD>
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R:260615/0341Z 53482@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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FXXX12 KWNP 150031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class activity was
observed. Region 4465 (N08W11, Cai/beta) exhibited some minor growth.
The three other spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 15-17 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with peak
values observed at 1,581 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
15-17 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 16 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued but, waning influence from a
negative polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength averaged
~5 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind
speeds gradually declined from ~525 km/s to ~440 km/s over the past 24
hours. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain mildly enhanced over
15 Jun under waning -CH HSS influences. An additional enhancement is
likely on 16-17 Jun due to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a
CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
15 Jun as -CH HSS influences slowly diminish. Periods of active
conditions are likely on 16 Jun due to the anticipated glancing-blow
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 17 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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