Message:24161 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 13 Jun 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <15899_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels this period. Regions 4464 (S13W37,
Dao/beta) and 4465 (N08E11, Hax/alpha) exhibited signs of decay, while
Region 4463 (N17W34, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged.
A CME associated with a filament eruption near N02E40 at around 12/1600
UTC, and first visible off the NE in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1650 UTC,
has been analyzed to have an Earth-directed component with a likely
arrival on 16 Jun.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 15 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 13-15 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued negative polarity CH HSS
influences, combined with likely CME influences after 13/0945 UTC. Total
magnetic field strength reached a peak of 8 nT, while the Bz component
varied between +/-5 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds
increased from ~540 km/s to a peak of ~626 km/s after 13/0945 UTC. Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over 13-15 Jun
due to continued -CH HSS influences (13-15 Jun), and the passage of CMEs
(from 09 and 11 Jun) over 13-14 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under -CH
HSS and CME influences.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm
levels on 13 Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that
left the Sun on 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are
likely on 14 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 15 Jun, as
-CH HSS and CME influences wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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