Message:24126 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 13 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <15826_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 130031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4465 (N09E14, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C5.2 at 12/0214 UTC. The
region exhibited widespread decay over the past 24 hours. Region 4464
(S13W29, Dao/beta) saw growth in its trailer and intermediate spots.
The remaining numbered spotted regions were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay.
Other activity included a small filament eruption that was observed near
N02E40 beginning after 12/1600 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery contained a CME signature towards the NE. Analysis and modeling
of this event is ongoing.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 15 Jun, with
a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4464 and 4465.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high
levels over 13-14 Jun in response to high-speed stream influences. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 15 Jun.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from a CIR into a
negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a
peak of 15 nT at 12/0122 UTC to a steady ~5 nT by 12/0715 UTC. The Bz
component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT
during the CIR. Solar wind speeds increased from ~500 km/s during the
CIR to a peak speed between 600-700 km/s over 12/0600-0900UTC. A gradual
decline was observed through the remainder of the reporting period. Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements, in response to -CH HSS influences, are expected
to continue through 13 Jun. Further enhancements are anticipated to
continue into 14 Jun, due to the anticipated arrival of combined effects
from CMEs that departed the Sun on 09 and 11 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to the influence
of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jun due to the persistence of the
high-speed stream combined with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that
left the Sun over 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Conditions are expected to decrease
to mostly active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming periods, on
14 Jun as CME influences wane. Unsettled to active conditions are likely
over 15 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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