Message:23088 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Tue, 26 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <14208_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260526/0536Z 31669@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260526/0535Z 17845@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260526/0526Z 2535@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260526/0032Z 14208@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with occasional C-class flaring
observed. The largest event of the period was a C3.7/Sf flare at 25/0104
UTC from Region 4447 (S17E11, Dso/beta).
There are currently nine numbered regions on the visible disk. As Region
4446 (S14E45, Hax/alpha) rotated further into view, it was resolved as
two distinct groups and split into Region 4446 and new Region 4449
(S10E50, Dao/beta). Region 4447 underwent notable growth with new flux
emergence and consolidation of both poles. Region 4448 (S07E55,
Dao/beta) and Region 4445 (N07E26, Cro/beta) also exhibited some growth.
Two additional regions, 4450 (N10E49, Bxo/beta) and 4451 (S16E65,
Cro/beta). The remaining regions on the disk showed minor changes or
slight signs of decay.
Additional activity included partial halo CME from beyond the Northwest
limb that was observed in LASCO C2 beginning at 25/2212 UTC. Due to the
location of origin, no geoeffective impact is expected.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 28 May, with
an increasing chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
due to the activity of Region 4447 and the expected rotation into view
of active far-side regions that supported by coronal activity observed
beyond the east limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 371 pfu observed at 25/0205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux and the 100 MeV flux became elevated
late in the period but well below threshold values as a result of far
side activity from beyond the NW limb.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 28 May. There is a chance (50%) for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 levels, and a slight chance (20%)
for the 100 MeV flux to reach 1 pfu on 26 May. A return to background
values is expected for 27-28 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions, heavily
influenced by interactions with the heliospheric current sheet. The phi
angle was variable structure, recording several distinct solar sector
boundary crossings before remaining in the negative (towards the Sun)
sector after approximately 25/1400 UTC. This boundary transition
coincided with a drop in density and changes in the components of the
interplanetary magnetic field. Total magnetic field (Bt) was variable
across the period, ranging from a peak of 9.5 nT down to less than 2 nT.
The north-south (Bz) component was similarly variable, but mostly
southward with a maximum deflection of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds started
the period around 300 km/s before rising slightly following the 1530 UTC
transition to finish the period near 400 km/s.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to at or around ambient levels
through 26 May. Enhancements are anticipated on 27 May ahead of the
arrival of a relatively weak negative polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (-CH HSS) and will persist through 28 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
reporting period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at mostly quiet levels on 26
May as near-background solar wind conditions persist. An increase to
unsettled to active levels is likely late on 26 May and into 27 May due
to the anticipated onset and influence of a -CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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