Message:23034 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Mon, 25 May 26 03:47:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: ecast
Message-ID: <14119_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4
R:260525/0347Z 31632@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
:Issued: 2026 May 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 25-May 27 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 25-May 27 2026
May 25 May 26 May 27
00-03UT 1.67 1.33 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 2.00 3.67
06-09UT 1.33 2.33 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 1.33 3.00 12UT 1.33 2.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 1.33 3.00 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 25-May 27 2026
May 25 May 26 May 27
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 25-May 27 2026
May 25 May 26 May 27
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a
chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 25-27 May,
primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4441 and Region 4446.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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