Message:22976 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 24 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <14017_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260524/0502Z 31602@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260524/0502Z 17748@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260524/0444Z 2454@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260524/0031Z 14017@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels following several minor C-class flares,
the largest being a C3.6 at 23/0548 UTC. The majority of the flare
activity appeared to originate between newly numbered Region 4446
(S13E75, Dao/beta) and the East limb. Region 4441 (N09W71, Ehi/beta)
added a few flares as well, including the aforementioned C3.6 flare, and
a long-duration C2.8 flare at 23/1954 UTC. This flare had an associated
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 932 km/s. The
majority of the CMEs noted in coronagraph imagery appear to have a
source location either from the limb or from the far side of the Sun. As
of this summary, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
satellite imagery.
Aside from newly numbered Region 4446, several pores were noted in
various stages of development/decay throughout the visible disk. None
appeared to last long enough to number at this time, but will be
monitored throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 24-26 May, primarily
due to the flare potential of Region 4441 and newly numbered Region
4446.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
moderate to high levels, reaching a peak level of 4,016 pfu at 23/1555
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 24-25 May before returning to low to moderate levels
on 26 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 26 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
averaged near 330 km/s, total magnetic field strength was steady near 3
nT, and the phi angle was predominantly in a negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Primarily ambient conditions are expected for 24-25 May under a
background solar wind regime. Late on 26 May, enhancements to the solar
wind environment are possible with the anticipated onset of a negative
polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels over the past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 24-25 May under a near-background
solar regime. Periods of unsettled conditions are possible, with a
chance for an isolated active period, late on 26 May with the likely
onset of an approaching -CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List