Message:22948 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 23 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13945_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260523/1321Z 31587@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260523/1321Z 12671@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260523/1318Z 2433@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260523/1231Z 13945@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period, a
C3.6 at 23/0548 UTC, was observed from an unnumbered active region
rotating around the Suns SE limb. Minor spot development was observed
in Regions 4441 (N08W65, Eki/beta-gamma) and 4444 (S19E45, Dso/beta).
Newly numbered Region 4445 (N07E59, HSX/alpha) was mostly stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 May, primarily
due to the complexity of Region 4441, as well as multiple active regions
rotating onto the visible disk from the eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
moderate to high levels, reaching a peak level of 3,762 pfu at 22/1710
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 23-25 May as a weak coronal hole high-speed stream is
anticipated to become geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels through 25 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
varied between 330 km/s to 380 km/s, total magnetic field strength
was below 5 nT, and the phi angle was predominantly in a negative
orientation.
.Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on 23 May as
a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) may become
geoeffective. However, confidence is waning for this CH HSS to interact
with Earth. If the CH HSS does influence the solar wind parameters,
conditions are likely to wane by 24-25 May as the CH HSS moves past
Earth.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels over the
past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Periods of unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active
period, remain possible on 23 May if the anticipated sector boundary
crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS occur. Mostly quiet
levels are anticipated on 24-25 May under a near-background solar
regime.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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