Message:22921 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 23 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13929_N4SD>
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R:260523/0430Z 10379@PU2XTC.SP.BRA.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0422Z 25889@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
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R:260523/0416Z 12880@KE0GB.#SECO.CO.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0416Z 546@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0407Z 81744@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260523/0407Z 67712@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260523/0355Z 2413@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0032Z 13929@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M2.3 (R1-Minor)
flare at 22/1029 UTC from near Region 4436 (N18, L=334), just beyond the
NW limb. The associated CME observed in coronagraph imagery was
determined to be travelling well ahead of Earth, with no impacts
expected. This region was also responsible for the majority of the
C-class flare activity throughout the period.
Several developing pores were observed in different areas on the visible
disk, with most diminishing before becoming active regions. Region 4441
(N08W58, Eai/beta-gamma) remained the largest and most complex region,
with continued weak development and reorganization in its intermediate
spots, yet was mostly inactive throughout the period. Regions 4443
(S16W05, Dso/beta) and 4444 (S20E53, Cso/beta) both exhibited slight
growth, but remained inactive as well. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 May, primarily
due to the complexity of Region 4441, as well as multiple active regions
rotating onto the visible disk from the eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
moderate to high levels, reaching a peak level of 3,762 pfu at 22/1710
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 23-25 May as a weak coronal hole high-speed stream is
likely to become geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 25 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
averaged around 350 km/s to 375 km/s, total magnetic field strength
averaged ~4 nT, and the phi angle was predominantly in a negative
orientation.
.Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on 23 May as
a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS) may become
geoeffective. However, confidence is waning for this CH HSS to interact
with Earth. If the CH HSS does influence the solar wind parameters,
conditions are likely to wane by 24-25 May as the CH HSS moves past
Earth.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels over the past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Periods of unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active
period, remain possible on 23 May if the anticipated sector boundary
crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS occur. Mostly quiet
levels are anticipated on 24-25 May under a near-background solar
regime.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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