Message:22917 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 23 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13928_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260523/0214Z 31572@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260523/0213Z 17690@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0203Z 2411@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260523/0031Z 13928@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 23-May 25 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 23-May 25 2026
May 23 May 24 May 25
00-03UT 2.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
06-09UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.33 1.67
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 1.33 1.67
21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 23-May 25 2026
May 23 May 24 May 25
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 22 2026 1029 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 23-May 25 2026
May 23 May 24 May 25
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 23-25 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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