Message:22891 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 22 May 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13856_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260522/1411Z 31554@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260522/1411Z 17660@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1403Z 2387@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1231Z 13856@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. An M2.3 (R1-Minor) flare was
observed at 22/1029 UTC from near Region 4436 (N18, L=334) around the NW
limb. Several areas of developing pores were observed. An active region
number will be assigned if the areas produce spots that persist. Region
4441 (N08W58, Eai/beta-gamma) was the largest and most complex; it
continued to develop intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Only
minor changes were observed among the remaining active regions. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 22-24 May, primarily
due to the complexity of Region 4441 and the recent flaring history of
Region 4436. Additionally, as multiple active regions (tracked via
far-side satellite and helioseismology imagery) rotate into view, an
increase in activity could occur over 23-24 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels, reaching a peak level of 2841 pfu at 21/1550 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 22-24 May as a weak coronal hole high-speed stream is
likely to become geoeffective. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 24 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Wind speeds
gradually decreased from 450 km/s to 350 km/s during the reporting
period. Total magnetic field strength averaged ~4 nT. The phi angle was
predominantly in a negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to observe weak enhancements on 22-23
May as a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
is likely to become geoeffective. Conditions are likely to wane by 24
May as the CH HSS moves past Earth.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels over the past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Periods of unsettled conditions are likely over 22-23 May, with a chance
for isolated active periods, following an anticipated sector boundary
crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels
are anticipated on 24 May due to persistent, yet waning, +CH HSS
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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