Message:22869 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 22 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13832_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260522/0527Z 31541@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260522/0527Z 17640@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260522/0523Z 2366@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260522/0031Z 13832@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels following three C-class flares from
Region 4436 (N18W90, Csi/beta) as it approached the NW limb. The first
was a C5.6 at 21/1321 UTC, the second a C8.3 at 21/1814 UTC, and the
third a C9.5 at 21/1825 UTC. All three were impulsive, short duration
flares, with no discernable associated CMEs noted in coronagraph
imagery. Region 4436 appeared to continue adding spots as it reached the
limb, but foreshortening substantially inhibited analysis of the
magnetic structure of this region.
Regions 4441 (N08W45, Eai/beta-gamma) and 4443 (S16E10, Dao/beta)
exhibited growth during the period, but were relatively inactive. The
other numbered regions were stable or in decay. New Region 4444 (S21E65,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered and remained inactive.
The CME off the NW limb, mentioned in the previous discussion, was
analyzed and deemed to travel well ahead of Earths orbit.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available in coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 22-24 May, primarily
due to the complexity of Region 4441 and the recent flaring history of
Region 4436. Additionally, as multiple active regions (tracked via
far-side satellite and helioseismology imagery) rotate into view, an
increase in activity could occur on 23-24 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels, reaching a peak level of 2841 pfu at 21/1550 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels on 22-24 May as a new coronal hole high-speed stream is
expected to move into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 24 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near-background conditions.
Wind speeds gradually decreased throughout the reporting period, ending
the period at approximately 400 km/s. Total IMF averaged near 4 nT while
the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. The phi angle remained largely
in a negative orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to observe weak enhancements on 22-23
May as a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
moves into a geoeffective position. Tapering of conditions is expected
by 24 May as the CH HSS moves out of position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.
.Forecast...
Isolated unsettled periods are expected 22-23 May, with a chance for
isolated active periods, following an anticipated sector boundary
crossing and the onset of the approaching +CH HSS. Largely quiet levels
are anticipated on 24 May due to persistent, yet waning, +CH HSS
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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