Message:22480 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sun, 17 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13403_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260518/0134Z 31291@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260517/0724Z 17196@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260517/0702Z 2110@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260517/0031Z 13403@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity
from Regions 4436 (N19W26, Hsx/alpha) and 4435 (N22, L=41). Regions 4439
(N06E68, Dao/beta), 4440 (N17E71, Cao/beta) and 4441 (N08E28, Dro/beta)
were all numbered this period, but remained relatively quiet. Regions
4436 and 4438 began exhibiting signs of decay.
Region 4436 produced an M1.9 flare at 16/1612 UTC which was followed by
an M1.3 flare at 16/1629. This event was associated with a Type IV radio
sweep that began at approximately 16/1605 UTC, a filament eruption that
was centered at approximately N21W07 and resulted in a complex CME
eruption. The first front of this event was first seen in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery at 16/1636 UTC with the second becoming visible near
16/1700 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests a glancing blow
to Earth by mid UTC-day with a bulk of the material missing northward on
18 May.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels, with a
chance for additional M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 19
May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to high levels with a
peak flux of 1,420 pfu observed at 16/1845 UTC in response to high speed
stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background
levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 Meink
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