Message:22468 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 16 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13349_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260518/0132Z 31278@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260516/1907Z 12170@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260516/1846Z 2097@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260516/1232Z 13349@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 161231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4435 (N22W89, Dao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C9.5/Sf at 15/1614 UTC.
Associated with the flare was a Type II radio sweep (est. 529 km/s).
Only minor changes were observed in the three numbered active regions on
the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels, with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 18 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May, likely increasing to high levels on 17-18 May as
-CH HSS influences persist. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to stay at background levels through 18 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected increased influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength unsteadily
increased from around 3 nT to reach as high as 17 nT. The Bz component
briefly reached as far south as -14 nT. Phi was in a predominantly
negative orientation. Wind speeds steadily increased to a peak of ~800
km/s between 15/2300-16/0330 UTC. A gradual decline to a speed near 650
km/s was observed by the end of the reporting period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continued to be enhanced through
18 May due to the persistent influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm
levels due to the influence of a CIR ahead of negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) conditions are expected to continue through 16 May due to the
ongoing effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active to G1 (Minor)
storm levels are likely to continue on 17 May, decreasing to unsettled
to active conditions by 18 May as lingering CH HSS influences diminish.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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