Message:22462 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Sat, 16 May 26 00:33:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13320_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260518/0131Z 31272@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260516/1829Z 17173@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260516/1810Z 2092@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260516/0033Z 13320@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4435 (N22W81, Dao/beta)
produced the three largest events of the period: a C4.3/Sf at 15/1150
UTC, a C6.7/Sf at 15/1313 UTC, and a C9.5/Sf at 15/1614 UTC. Type II
radio sweeps accompanied each flare, with estimated speeds of 486 km/s,
347 km/s, and 529 km/s, respectively. Proper analysis of the magnetic
structure of Region 4435 became increasingly difficult as it reached the
NW solar limb. Region 4436 (N19W13, Cao/beta) was mostly unchanged and
quiet, while Region 4438 (N20W57, Dao/beta) showed continued, yet slower
growth during the period.
The CMEs mentioned in the previous discussion were deemed to be mostly
far-sided or have a trajectory above the ecliptic, and are not expected
to impact Earth.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels, with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 18 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May, likely increasing to high levels on 17-18 May as
-CH HSS influences increase. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to stay at background levels through 18 May.
Solar Wind
.2d of the period speeds near
800 km/s.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continued to be enhanced through
18 May due to the persistent influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels, followed by an
increase to G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate), as a CIR and negative polarity
CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storming conditions are expected to
continue on 16 May due to the ongoing effects of a negative polarity CH
HSS. Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to continue on 17 May,
decreasing to unsettled to active conditions by 18 May as lingering CH
HSS influences diminish.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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