Message:22405 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Fri, 15 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <13246_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260515/0857Z 31230@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260515/0856Z 17122@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260515/0843Z 2025@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260515/0032Z 13246@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 150031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with four active regions on disk
and only C-class level activity. Region 4435 (N22W66, Dri/beta-gamma)
was responsible for the most of the C-class flares, including the
largest event: a C5.5/Sf peaking at 14/0642 UTC. Region 4436 (N18E02,
Cao/beta) was stable this period and produced a C5.1 flare at 14/1840
UTC. Regions 4435 and 4438 (N20W44, Dao/beta) showed significant growth
in the later half of the reporting period.
An active filament was observed near N40W45 at approximately 14/1330
UTC. However, no discernable ejecta has been observed in coronagraph
imagery at the time of this summary.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 May,
decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May, potentially reaching high levels on 17 May. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels
through 17 May.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected the waning effects of a positive
polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength decreased from 7 nT
to 5 nT levels, with a minimum of 2 nT at 14/2149 UTC. The speeds also
slowly dropped from about 450 km/s to a minimum of 375 km/s before
starting to slowly accelerate again. The north-south Bz component
reduced the amplitude of its oscillation to +- 5 nT, though it spent the
majority of the reporting period oriented northward. The Phi angle
was predominantly positive until 14/1948 UTC, when it flipped negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced from 15-17 May due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
.Forecast...
G2 (Moderate) storming conditions are likely on 15 May due to the
anticipated impact of a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS.
Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to prevail on 16-17 May due
to lingering CH HSS influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
Return To Bulletin List