Message:22356 In: SPACWX.USA
From: N4SDDate: Thu, 14 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13194_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260514/1539Z 31216@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260514/1539Z 17105@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260514/1535Z 2009@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260514/1232Z 13194@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2026
May 14 May 15 May 16
00-03UT 2.67 4.00 4.33
03-06UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1)
06-09UT 1.67 4.00 3.67
09-12UT 0.67 3.67 3.33
12-15UT 1.67 3.67 3.33
15-18UT 2.00 3.67 3.33
18-21UT 2.67 4.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 3.33
Rationale: Active levels are likely through the end of 14 May. G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are likely on 15 May due to the
anticipated arrival of a CIR associated with a negative CH HSS. G1
(Minor) storming levels are likely on 16 May due to the -CH HSS
persistence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2026
May 14 May 15 May 16
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2026
May 14 May 15 May 16
R1-R2 40% 40% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 16 May, mostly due to the flare potential of regions 4435 and
4436.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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